Who coined that ridicules clichéd “iPod Killer” term to being with anyway?

The tech blogs are abuzz with the confirmation from Microsoft that they will be launching Zune by the end of this year or some time around that. Anyway here are things we should know about the whole hullabaloo.

iPod cannot be killed. It already has a mass following, and they are fanatical about the iPod. Short of nuking it from orbit; just to be sure, it cannot be killed. It can be hurt – a little, maybe a small .. er prick. Besides, iPod will not sit still as Zune enters the market.

iPod literally popularized the digital music player, and made it attractive and cool to the masses. They know what they are doing when it comes to digital music. Yes, Creative was already there with it’s Zen players, but they never really attained the cult status of the iPod, even with a “open” music format. iPOD made it a success despite the fact that they had a “closed,” music format which everyone thought wasn’t so nice.

Having said that, what about Zune?

Zune, comes from Microsoft. Now that is a very bad thing – if you believe what the tech blogs are saying, mainly because it comes from Microsoft. Oh, and because it also is a “closed,” or proprietary format – which will not Play on other WMP devices.

Zune comes from Microsoft. Now that is a very good thing – for Microsoft. Other than some elitist views on all things tech, who by the way are very vocal, the general population of Tom, Dick and Harry will not really care if it comes from Microsoft or Apple.

Microsoft is an extremely valuable brand and Zune will definitely benefit from it, and also from the deep pockets that Microsoft has for mass media campaigns.

Zune is not just a digital music player, and we are not quite sure what it is. Rumors are flying around that it will allow you to share music, got Wi-Fi, watch videos, even hook-up somehow with XBOX. See a nice analysis here and an insider’s view here.. It would be cool to be able to do all of that, but then what the heck is a Zune? A Jack of all trades, and a master of none.

Personally, if this is the case, Microsoft is approaching it ass backwards. iPod started off as a simple, but extremely cool digital music player, then diversified into other things like video. It is generally easy for consumers to accept a product that does one thing well first, then expand functionality. Kinda like mobile phones, started off as a phone, then an address book, then a PDA and now a camera – but we can still choose to buy just the phone if we want to. Consumers don’t like confusion and that can hurt Zune.

So will Zune be the iPod killer when the time comes?

Most likely scenario is that Zune will repeated the PS2 Vs. XBOX fight. It will gain shares over-time against iPod, but the market dominance of iPod cannot and will not be overturned – unless in the extremely unlikely event that Apple decides to close shop. In time, it will become a respectable player in the category – just like the XBOX.

Personally I see another player (or more) entering the Mobile Digital Entertainment fray,whether it is Creative remains to be seen, and Zune will have to fight it out with that third or forth player.

Well this is not exactly about advertising…

How much is goodwill and positive buzz worth for a company?

I would say a lot. Way more than they know. Consider the last E3. Another year, another E3 and as usual there were bombs and da bombs. There are two companies that I want to focus on. After a month or two after E3 I was expecting the tone of the coverage and fanboy reaction to change, but fortunately or unfortunately it didn’t.

Sony - The Cool Goliath

No brand name is better known for it’s consumer electronics than Sony.

At E3, PS3 bombed by most accounts. Of course it is not fair to judge and make a call on a Console that is not even out yet, but already here are several strikes against it. The price at appx US$ 600, the seemingly ripped-off controller and the prerendered game demos. And some unfortunate quotes from the head honchos of Sony about - how the revolution will not start until Sony says so - or something to that effect.

Even after a month or so after E3, Sony continues to receive negative coverage - from the claim that we don’t need PCs, when there is the PS3 or the news that allegedly says that we cannot resell our old PS3 games, or an earlier news that PS3 has been downgraded less USB, a crippled CPU. Now some of it is news and most likely true, others are probably rumors.

All of that has generated some negative buzz on the net. While any PR is good PR, in the case of PS3, it might not hold true. Now they need some serious damage control to correct that or somehow turn it to their advantage. Besides, read anything about PS3 these days and you will see that it is negative.

But will PS3 fail? I doubt it, purely because of the number of PS fanboys out there. You heard it here first!!

Wii - Will it really rock?

People seem to think so, sometimes perception is reality.

Wii - this is Da Bomb. Despite or because of the weird sounding name that came out a couple of days before E3, it has already generated enough Buzz, discussion, word of mouth interest on the net - and that type of exposure is all good for it.

Then people got to see the controler in action - or like me saw it on Google Video or Youtube. More than anything that is also another “talk,” point. And from what I have seen, it is mostly good.

And the type of games they are offering - while graphically will not be competitive to PS3 or the 360 - also received good feedback - mainly because people do believe that they will offer better gameplay and pure fun, that has been missing from the Consoles in the last couple of years. While this remains to be seen, another plus for the Wii.

And did I mention the price? Did someone say US$ 200? Wasn’t PSP selling for US$ 150 earlier?

That all adds up to the benefit of Wii. Somehow, there sure is a lot of positive stuff on Wii on the net, and somehow Wii managed to get gamers to create good buzz about their product. Now that is pure Word Of Mouth Campaign (kinda like the banner ad that we now seem to have on the Vine)..

Verdict

The only thing for Wii to watch out for is to keep the pressure up and not make any silly gaffs like Sony did. Of course the PS3 apologist are saying that Sony, which is a company known for it’s marketing savvy will not make such silly mistakes. Perhaps Sony simply underestimated fanboy response.

Personally, I think that Sony could have done better at E3. It was a great opportunity missed, and Wii somehow managed to steal PS3’s thunder - not to mention that of the 360.

Of course the real test will be when the products ship - will Wii disappoint or create even more buzz? Can PS3 somehow manage to make a comeback and once again be the king of the hill? I just can’t wait to see!!

Oh, I forgot to answer my own question of how much goodwill is worth to a company….

PS3 priced at US$ 500 expects to sell about 6 Million units by March 2007. Wii also has the same target but at a much lesser price of US$ 200. Doing the math, Sony will stand to win or lose 3 Billion US$, while Wii will be about 1.2 Billion US$.

How is that for chump change??